ANALYSIS / BURMA

Rangoon's generals prepare for the changing LARRY JAGAN

Burma's top military leaders are planning a massive shake-up in the
army and government. The major changes are expected to emerge at the
end of the quarterly meeting of the country's governing State Peace
and Development Council or SPDC. The top military ruler, General Than
Shwe, is also expected to stand down as the junta leaders pass power
to the next generation of generals. The country's top 12 generals are
currently meeting in Rangoon to discuss their plans and strategy for
the future. The meeting comes at a particularly crucial time for the
military as the National Convention prepares to complete the draft of
the new constitution before the end of the year. It is likely to be
put to a referendum, with fresh elections being held within the next
12 months.

The planned changes are the most dramatic since the army seized power
17 years ago. The top general is reportedly planning to give up at
least one of the three key posts he holds as chairman of the SPDC,
supreme commander of the army, and defence minister.

''We expect Than Shwe to relinquish his position as defence minister
in the forthcoming reshuffle,'' said a senior Southeast Asian
diplomat who has regular contact with the Burmese regime. Gen Than
Shwe recently told the visiting Thai army's supreme commander,
General Chaisit Shinawatra, that he would retire soon and that
General Thura Shwe Mann would take over as the country's leader in
due course.

There are increasing doubts about the senior general's health. Six
months ago he had a very mild stroke, but has recovered from that. Dr
Kyaw Myint, the health minister and Gen Than Shwe's personal
physician, visits him every day to monitor his medical condition,
according to family friends. A Singaporean doctor also recently
visited Rangoon to attend to him, according to Burmese military
sources.

Time appears to be catching up with the 75-year-old general, say
diplomats who have recently met the Burmese leader. Gen Than Shwe is
known to suffer from hypertension and is a diabetic. ''He's subject
to frequent diabetic rages when his sugar levels get out of
control,'' a Burmese army doctor said. But many Burmese analysts
believe much of the old man's deteriorating health is largely a
psychological illness, the result of a depression caused by the
increasing public revelations of his wife and children's rabid
corruption.

He was particularly shocked when, during his trial for corruption,
the former agriculture minister, Nyunt Tin, disclosed that he had
presented Gen Than Shwe's wife and their daughter with five diamonds,
each worth US$1.5 million. ''He was so shocked by these corruption
revelations and the extent of his daughter's business dealings that
he took to his bed with depression for days,'' a Burmese source said.

This may have prompted the senior general to withdraw from the public
eye and take a back seat for the time being. Although he may even
retire as the SPDC chairman, he is unlikely to give up the post of
supreme commander of the army. ''Even if Than Shwe officially retires
he will not give up his power. Instead he'll remain the grey eminence
behind the throne, along the lines of the Chinese leader Deng
Xiaoping in the years before his death,'' said Burmese analyst Win
Min, based in Chiang Mai.

Gen Thura Shwe Mann is tipped to replace Gen Maung Aye as the army's
commander-in-chief, paving the way for him to take the reigns of
power sometime next year. And Gen Maung Aye may well become the SPDC
chairman.

There is no doubt that at present Gen Than Shwe is taking a back
seat. ''Than Shwe has withdrawn from involvement in the day-to-day
government of the country and Maung Aye has effectively taken over
the former prime minister Khin Nyunt's role of running Burma,'' said
a senior Asian diplomat based in Rangoon.

In recent weeks, it has been Gen Maung Aye who has dominated the
front pages of the government-controlled newspapers, with Gen Than
Shwe increasingly less prominent. ''Maung Aye's mug is everywhere in
the Burmese media _ a clear sign that he has strengthened his
influence and control within the junta,'' according to a Rangoon-
based Western diplomat.

But others believe this is only a ploy by the senior general until he
is ready to resume his central role and become the country's first
president under the new constitution that is expected to be adopted
early next year. ''Than Shwe is only giving Maung Aye enough rope to
hang himself,'' said a Southeast Asian diplomat.

''The National Convention will have drawn up a new constitution by
the end of the year and it will be put to a referendum in early
2006,'' said a senior Chinese diplomat.

And new elections are likely before the end of next year. Beijing
believes Gen Than Shwe will stand down next year and become the
civilian president. ''He wants to be president for life,'' a senior
military source close to him said.

Gen Thura Shwe Mann is scheduled to take over as head of the army and
replace Gen Than Shwe as head of the junta, according to a senior
Chinese diplomat.

When that time comes, he will grant a mass amnesty to all political
prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, Khin Nyunt, and the former
military intelligence officers who were sentenced to hundreds of
years in prison for corruption and economic crimes earlier this year,
according to Asian diplomats.

To prepare for these momentous political changes, Burma's top leaders
are planning to hand over control of the military to the next
generation of army officers. Gen Thura Shwe Mann will head the new
triumvirate of military leaders, supported by Prime Minister Gen Soe
Win and Secretary One, Gen Thein Sein.

''This is the new generation of military leaders who are being
readied to take over power,'' according to senior Indian diplomats
who deal with Rangoon. But, they warn, this group of generals lacks
the manners and intelligence of their superiors. ''These men are
uncouth, uneducated and only know how to bark orders,'' said a former
Indian diplomat who has been based in Rangoon previously and knows
the new generals well.

This new generation of leaders is likely to be just as preoccupied as
their predecessors with holding on to power. And they are certain to
be unprepared to compromise with either the pro-democracy parties or
the ethnic minorities.

Source:
http://www.rebound88.net/sp/junta/spower-struggle5.html